As a turbulent political year drew to a close in 2024, some observations can be made about the state of the various parties and some of their personnel, writes Peter Dunne at the end of last year.
Within the National Party, 2024 saw the emergence of Chris Bishop as not just one of the Government’s key ministers with a range of new initiatives across his various portfolios, but also the go-to person when things do not go to plan.
In that regard, he looks set to reprise the role of ‘Minister of Everything’, pioneered by Bill Birch during the Bolger government, and developed to the ultimate degree by Steven Joyce in the last National-led government.
Erica Stanford was National’s best performing minister during 2024. She always managed to appear competent and professional, and on top of her brief. At the same time, she showed, through her handling of the Abuse in Care inquiry outcomes, that she has the appropriate levels of compassion when required to balance her cool competence.
Judith Collins continues to be National’s quiet achiever across a varied range of portfolios, never putting a foot wrong.
On the other hand, Shane Reti has been the biggest disappointment. He has failed to achieve any of the Government’s commitments on improving the public health system, despite retaining the soothing and reassuring bedside manner expected of a doctor. He must surely be a leading candidate for demotion when the first Cabinet reshuffle occurs this year [and he was – Ed].
Chris Hipkins was Labour’s most consistent and persistent performer throughout 2024. His contributions were generally sensible and thoughtful, although constrained by the policy time-warp his party seems to be entering. Against the odds, it is becoming more likely that he could lead Labour into the next election, although whether he can achieve victory remains another question altogether.
However, Hipkins was handicapped throughout the year by the largely somnambulant performance of the rest of his colleagues; many of whom have been dormant since before the last election. Others would best serve Labour’s interests by staying asleep altogether (Willie Jackson’s consistently buffoonish rants, and Ayesha Verrall’s supercilious smugness come to mind). This year, Labour will need to start to cull many of the time servers and deadwood wasting space on its backbenches to get in shape to be competitive at the 2026 election.
As ACT leader, David Seymour enjoyed a good year. While other ACT Ministers – notably Karen Chhour – have impressed, Seymour’s persona, built around his unflinching commitment to the controversial Treaty Principles Bill, has largely shaped the party’s image. His challenge will be to maintain the momentum he has generated, once the Treaty Principles Bill bites the dust this year, and his elevation to the position of Deputy Prime Minister around the same time should assist in that regard.
Winston Peters’ durability and political stamina has been remarkable, and his wiliness has been an asset for the Government during its first year. In May, he will step down from his third stint as Deputy Prime Minister – shortly after his 80thbirthday. He says this will leave him plenty of time to campaign for NZ First’s re-election in 2026.
However, Shane Jones’ impatience to succeed Peters as party leader is beginning to show and may get in the way of any wish Peters has to lead NZ First into the next election. Jones is also no spring chicken and made no secret of his interest in NZ First’s top job, whenever it should become vacant.
As far as the Green Party is concerned, 2024 was the year of Chloe Swarbrick. Through the most tragic and unexpected circumstances she led the party through its most difficult year. Her drive and determination have sustained her thus far, but maintaining that level of intensity over the next 18 months will be challenging. At the same time, she may need to curb her mounting tendency to appear to be talking down to people and hectoring them on policies the Greens feel passionately about.
Te Pati Maori has succeeded at becoming Parliament’s self-styled disruptor by making itself unpopular with everyone but its core constituency, which appears to be growing. This potentially creates a longer-term problem for Labour if it sees Te Pati Maori as a possible future partner in government. Labour could well consider that Te Pati Maori is becoming too hot to handle as a government partner, in much the same way that Helen Clark dismissed an earlier incarnation of the party as “the last cab off the rank” in 2005. On the other hand, Labour may have no path to government, although that may put some of Labour’s more conservative support at risk.
Finally, Parliament’s best performer for 2024 – as opposed to politician of the year – was Speaker Gerry Brownlee who has performed his role with the patience, wisdom and dignity that critics might not have previously expected of him.